Many environmental advocates are silently cheering this development, possibly backed by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which prepared the report on aviation’s contribution to global warming.
Airplanes not only emit carbon dioxide (CO2), but ozone (which leaks into the troposphere) and nitrogen oxides. When nitrogen oxides mix with sulfates and CO2 in the colder air above 30,000 feet, they create vapor clouds. These clouds have two to three times the warming effect of CO2 alone, according to a report issued in 2004 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
These vapor trails, known as contrails, create cirrus clouds. According to MIT, these may play a bigger-than-suspected role in climate change. In fact, according to atmospheric scientist Patrick Minnis (Langley Research Center in Hampton, VA) contrails may account for the entire warming trend documented between 1975 and 1994.
Other scientists believe the major global-warming culprits are fossil-fuel burning power plants, closely followed by automobiles. In spite of that, Minnis’ charge must have struck a chord in Europe, where lawmakers are involved in a concerted, legislative push to make sure airplane emissions don’t tip the fragile atmospheric balance.
They base their concern on the fact that airlines, which have already achieved as much fuel efficiency as possible and have no viable alternative to fossil fuels in the pipeline, are predicted to double their bookings in the next 15 years.
The current recession has put a damper on those growth projections though, and like the auto industry, it is highly likely one of the next fallouts could be with the shaky airline industry. Given that many of the world's largest airlines (UAL, AA, Continental, et al) have skirted bankruptcy in recent memory, one wonders how long it will take to push them to the brink with fuel prices increasing this week to around $75 a barrel.
A June 2009 report by the International Air Transport Association estimates that the world’s airlines will lose $9 billion this year. This is larger than the March estimate, which targeted a loss of $4.7 billion, and has the industry watching the winds of change for an upturn.
Not surprisingly, private jet purchases have also been trending downward. Cash strapped corporate executives are also downsizing private jets. When corporate profits peaked in 2006, so did corporate jet deliveries, according to an analysis by JP Morgan. When the whole web of high finance started to come apart in 2008, many corporations facing cutbacks sold off their frivolous assets like corporate jets and luxury timeshares, in order to maintain goodwill with the public.
The results have been highly negative. A study by American Express Publishing and Harrison Group shows that the top one percent of wealthy Americans are abandoning private jets for fear their money may run out. The January, 2009 Super Bowl (XVIII) saw 25 percent fewer private jets parked at Tampa Bay airports than in 2008.
This recovery could also be hampered in part by reports from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). Recently it was announced that most of the U.S. pilots involved in serious accidents during the last decade had a history of failing skill and performance tests.
Jeffrey B. Skiles, whose quick thinking saved the passengers of US Airways Flight 1549 that came down in the Hudson River this year, is reported as saying that the airlines are hiring pilots who barely meet the minimum qualifications for acceptance by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Consumer confidence is bound to be lacking in the face of such reports, and it is this confidence as much as economic recovery that drives the airline industry.
Loss of confidence in pilot skill and less disposable income means fewer people are traveling by plane. With the climate debate reaching a critical threshold, it's interesting to note that economic circumstances, more than any deliberate reduction measures, are likely to benefit our environment.
This article was contributed to Celsias by Jeanne Roberts
Be Informed, Take Action on Climate Change - www.Celsias.com.
