Interesting Pew Research graph over at Tony Watts' site today:
From the post:
The survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds a sharp decline over the past year in the percentage of Americans who see solid evidence that global temperatures are rising. According to the survey, conducted between Sept. 30 and Oct. 4 among 1,500 adults reached on cell phones and landlines, fewer respondents also see global warming as a very serious problem; 35% say that today, down from 44% in April 2008. The survey also points to a decline in the proportion of Americans who say global temperatures are rising as a result of human activity. Just 36% say that currently, down from 47% last year.
While he notes that it's not all bad news - a majority (56%) of Americans think the United States should join other countries in setting standards to address global climate change for example - that red line is a stunner. Why? Notable Evangelicals like Frank Page, president of the Southern Baptist Convention, and Jonathan Merritt, son of the convention's former president went on record in support of climate change action. Notable conservatives like Newt Gingrich made climate change videos with Nancy Pelosi. The past 24 months have been the culmination of an unprecedented effort to rally conservative and independent Evangelicals to the cause, including an explosion of books and articles reaching out the faith-based community on the subject.
But rather than growing in support, independents are now at parity where 4 in 5 once stood firmly in the IPCC's camp. And conservatives are now polling at a 1/3 minority instead of a 2/3 majority.
So what's gives? Is it the messenger, the message, or something else?
Patrick S. says:
I believe it may be something else. Think about it. Say you are a devote, evangelical Christian. You have been reading and learning about how mankind, through economic progress, has pumped enough greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to fundamentally change the climate. You, just by the fact that you are an American, contributed to this change. Now, some people will think 'great, now that I get it, I'll do my part to fix it'. Those would tend to be liberals. Others will be too overwhelmed with guilt and denial since their entire way of living (the only way they believe life should be lead - by capitalism) is driving this change. Endless growth, consumerism, unsustainable use of natural resources for profit, etc.. They will tend to focus on the messenger rather than the message. It is just too painful and difficult for them to believe that they, personally, could be contributing to the possible suffering and death of future generations. Science be damned - they just know that mankind couldn't do this. And if it is really happening, it must be an uncontrollable natural process.
I just hope climate change is induced by human activity. At least we have a chance to reverse something we are causing. If it's a natural process, and can't be stopped, mankind is in for a shock that many of us may not survive.