Natural Disaster Risk
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How We Rated Cities
SustainLane examined the 50 largest US cities, assessing natural disaster risk. This ranking was devised with SustainLane primary research as well as with information from Risk Management Solutions. We looked at hurricanes, major flooding, catastrophic hail, tornado super-outbreaks, and earthquakes, taking into consideration potential frequency of disaster as well as the extent of damage.
The cities below are ranked from least to most at risk for natural disaster damage. (1 is least dangerous.)
2008 Rankings
Advanced
Mixed
Challenged
Endangered
Natural disasters can have significant environmental and economic impacts on cities, as evidenced by the destruction Katrina caused in New Orleans. SustainLane did not analyze drought in this category, as this natural phenomenon may be mitigated by water importation and conservation. (See: Water Supply.) Urban wildfires were also excluded from this study, as wildfire damage in modern cities typically affects only limited areas -- the Oakland, California firestorm of 1991 being one tragic exception.
The cities above were ranked by risk of natural disasters that could change the landscape of a city in a short period of time, affecting most city structures, water and energy supplies, in addition to the widespread loss of life.
Cities at Greatest Risk
Based on the above criteria, the cities with the greatest natural disaster risk are #50 Miami, which is sited on an exposed peninsula between two active hurricanes zones; #49 New Orleans; #48 Oakland, which straddles the Hayward Earthquake Fault; #47 San Francisco, on the San Andreas Fault and at risk for tsunamis; #46 Honolulu, subject to hurricanes, storm surge flooding, and tsunamis; and #45 San Jose, which is also near the San Andreas Fault.
Houston and Los Angeles tie at #44, with hurricanes and flooding a risk for the former (ie, Hurricane Ike, 2008) and earthquakes for the latter (ie, Northridge, 1994).
Cities at Least Risk
Coming in tied at #1 for lowest natural disaster risk as defined by the above criteria are Milwaukee and Mesa, Arizona. These cities are least likely to face hurricanes, earthquakes, catastrophic hail and tornado super-outbreaks, as they lack geographic, geologic and atmospheric conditions needed to create these disasters. Catastrophic flooding is also unlikely. Other major US cities ranking higher for safety from natural disasters are Cleveland, El Paso, Phoenix and Tucson (all tied at #3).
Resources
- Industry: Risk Management Solutions
- NOAA: National Hurricane Center
- USGS: Earthquake Hazards Program
- DHS: Ready.gov
- FEMA: Are You Ready? A Guide to Citizen Preparedness
- Related software: SimCity
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We must face the prospect of changing our basic ways of living. This change will either be made on our own initiative in a planned way, or forced on us with chaos and suffering by inexorable laws of nature. —Jimmy Carter (1976)
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